A note from Scott: It’s Friday, Jan. 17, which means that Oscar nominations voting — which was extended twice due to the terrible Los Angeles wildfires — will be ending at 5 p.m. PT. It also means that it’s time for me to share my final projections for 20 of the 23 categories (all but the three pertaining to shorts, which I only tackle post-noms).

Among the things that have happened since the last forecast and have factored in to my thinking: the Cinema Audio Society’s nominations from Jan. 7; the Directors Guild’s nominations from Jan. 8; the Art Directors Guild’s nominations from Jan. 9; the Visual Effects Society’s nominations from Jan. 14; the BAFTA nominations and the Writers Guild’s nominations from Jan. 15; and the Producers Guild’s nominations and the American Society of Cinematographers’ nominations from Jan. 16.

The bottom line? When the Oscar nominations are announced at 5:30 a.m. PT on Thursday, Jan. 23, I believe that the leaderboard will be topped by A24’s The Brutalist and Netflix’s Emilia Pérez with 10 apiece; followed close behind by Focus’ Conclave and Warners’ Dune: Part Two, both with nine; and then six each for Neon’s Anora, Searchlight’s A Complete Unknown and Universal’s Wicked.

Keep reading for a full breakdown, which includes some big-swing calls…

Please remember: You can bookmark this URL and return to it at any time to see my latest picks. Think of me like a meteorologist — my aim is to correctly predict what will happen, not to advocate for what I think should happen. My picks are arrived at by screening the films, consulting with the voters, analyzing the campaigns and studying the results of past seasons. I do not rank things that I have not seen, because doing so is just silly.

Best Picture

Best Director

Best Actor

Best Actress

Best Supporting Actor

Best Supporting Actress

Best Adapted Screenplay

Best Original Screenplay

Best International Feature

Best Documentary Feature

Best Animated Feature

Best Cinematography

Best Costume Design

Best Film Editing

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Best Original Score

Best Original Song

Best Production Design

Best Sound

Best Visual Effects

Archived forecasts

• Sept. 6, 2024
• Sept. 17, 2024
• Sept. 30, 2024
• Oct. 17, 2024
• Oct. 22, 2024
• Oct. 29, 2024
• Nov. 7, 2024
• Nov. 14, 2024
• Dec. 4, 2024
• Dec. 9, 2024
• Dec. 30, 2024
• Jan. 6, 2025